Accession Number : AD0251102

Title :   OBJECTIVE WIND FORECASTING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

Corporate Author : HAWAII INST OF GEOPHYSICS HONOLULU

Personal Author(s) : LAVOIE, R.L. ; WIEDERANDERS, C.J.

Report Date : DEC 1960

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : The results of a study of the potentialities of two simple objective techniques for wind forecasting over the tropical Pacific are presented. The investigation revealed that objective extrapolation of the winds does not provide a usable forecast. A simple statistical regression technique, which yields a forecast composed of a weighted combination of the persistence wind and the normal wind, does produce a useful improvement upon current forecast accuracy. The study further shows that, although it is difficult to anticipate the optimum weighting parameters without laborious computation, the technique can be applied immediately in the field for 24-hr forecasts. This is due to the circumstance that a simple average of persistence and the long term mean wind does as well as the optimum weighted combination of the two for a 24-hr forecast evaluated over the area as a whole. (Author)

Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND, METEOROLOGY, STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS, TEST METHODS, TROPICAL REGIONS.

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE