Accession Number : AD0257935

Title :   AN EXPERIMENT IN AIRCRAFT STATUS PREDICTION

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : JOHNSON,ROBERT E.

Report Date : 24 MAY 1961

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : A method of aircraft status prediction is described and an experiment based on certain Air Force data is presented. One aspect of weapon system management is the ability to control hour-to-hour and day-to-day readiness levels for aircraft and missiles. This analysis tries to develop a method for prediction purposes, one that would be useful for periods of hours rather than days. The author relies on a Markov chain method, finding it better that simple reliance on either the present status of the unit's aircraft or on some average status pattern. The method takes advantage of information about the future provided by (1) schedules relating to flying and to periodic maintenance, (2) historical data, and (3) current status information. It is suggested that certain systems now under development would be benefited by taking into account the needs of status prediction at such times as the systems become operational. (Author)

Descriptors :   *AIR FORCE OPERATIONS, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *OPERATIONS RESEARCH, AIRCRAFT, GUIDED MISSILES, PROBABILITY, SCHEDULING

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE