Accession Number : AD0270560

Title :   CONSISTENT FORECASTING IN A DYNAMIC MULTI-SECTOR MODEL

Corporate Author : CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY

Personal Author(s) : ALMON, CLOPPER JR.

Report Date : 01 DEC 1961

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : The basic idea of consistent forecasting is simple: make forecasts of the output of each industry, the wage rate, and perhaps other variables in such a way that, if business acts on the basis of the forecasts, they will come true and full employment will be obtained. The general concept is developed and the question of business cooperation with consistent forecasting is discussed. A ten-sector model is used to forecast from 1953 to 1960 with only the course of the total labor force and the exogenous final demands - exports, government, and capital replacement - known in advance. A comparison of the results with the actual course of events indicates that increasing productivity of new capital and a limited amount of variation of input coefficients must be included before practical forecasting can be done. (Author)

Descriptors :   *MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SCHEDULING.

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE