Accession Number : AD0283456

Title :   AN APPLICATION OF SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS TO A TARGETING PROBLEM

Corporate Author : LAND-AIR INC POINT MUGU CALIF

Personal Author(s) : BAUR,EBERHARD H.

Report Date : 20 JUL 1962

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : IN ANY SIMULATED NUCLEAR ATTACK WITH LARGE MISSILES ON EXPANDED TARGETS, T E STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT ALWAYS INDICATES SUCCESS OR FAILURE FOR THE ATTACK. A sequential analysis procedure decides in a Monte Carlo series with the events success or failure, whether or not the basic probability q for success is over or under 90%. The parameters for the sequential analysis procedure were calculated for the following regions of uncertain decisions: (90 + or - delta q)%, with delta q = 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5. If q i outside these regions, the decisions are right with a confidence level of greater than 95%. To insure these confidence levels, lower limits of the number of trials for an arbitrary process determination are calculated. Besides the specific application to targeting problems, t e procedure can also be used for every other binomial distribution. (Author)

Descriptors :   *AIR INTELLIGENCE, *TARGETS, BLAST, SURFACE TO SURFACE MISSILES, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, NUCLEAR WARFARE, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, PROBABILITY, STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS, STRATEGIC WEAPONS, SURFACE TARGETS, TERMINAL BALLISTICS, VULNERABILITY

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE