Accession Number : AD0285263

Title :   THE EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY INCENTIVES ON ESTIMATION

Corporate Author : MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR

Personal Author(s) : GOLDING,EDWIN IRWIN

Report Date : DEC 1962

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : Further knowledge about the bias and inaccuracies of individuals' estimates to perform tasks which havr. THE EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY INCENTIVES ON ESTIMATION. Doctoral thesis, by Edwin Irwin Golding. 1962, 276p. incl. illus. tables, 70 refs. Unclassified report DESCRIPTORS: *Decision making, *Information theory, *Games theory, *Probability, Statis tical analysis, Reasoning, Money, Effective ness, Needs. Identifiers: Motivation. Further knowledge about the bias and inaccuracies of individuals' estimates to perform tasks which have uncertain outcomes is provided. The standard deviation of a sample distribution of discrepancies between subjects' estimates and their actual outcomes does not approach a theoretical standard deviation calculated for a straw man using a random solution strategy, irrespective of the amount of uncertainty in the task. Monetary incentives were seen to effect the direction of estimates and the amount of their discrepancy. Bonus incentives tended to drive estimates and actual outcomes closer together. Competition for one prize drove the variables further apart. Over the range of uncertainty investigated, both conditions of incentives caused substantial reduction in the variables being recorded and in the variance of their distributions. As long as chance was an element to contend with in the performance of a task, fallible estimations, irrespective of the range of uncertainty, did not cease to exist. Requiring subjects to make point estimates instead of specifying intervals which would include their actual outcomes only encouraged further fallible estimations. (Author)

Descriptors :   *COMMUNICATION THEORY, *DECISION MAKING, *GAME THEORY, *PROBABILITY, EFFECTIVENESS, MONEY, MOTIVATION, REASONING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE