Accession Number : AD0415158

Title :   RESEARCH ON DECISION PROCESSES.

Descriptive Note : Final rept., 1 Dec 61-29 Mar 63,

Corporate Author : MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR INST OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Personal Author(s) : Edwards,Ward

Report Date : JUN 1963

Pagination or Media Count : 17

Abstract : The statement of research work read in part as follows: (a) Probability feedback in sequential decision making will be studied by determining courses of action whose probabilities of success will be well-defined functions of the subject's previous choices. Independent variables used in the study will include (1) nature of the dependency of probability of reward on previous choices, (2) number and degress of dependence or independence of the courses of action available and (3) amount and kind of information available to the subject. (b) Probability tracking will be studied by determining courses of action whose probabilities of success vary according to some well-defined function of the number of elapsed trials. Independent variables shall include the form and the continuity or discontinuity of the forcing function which generates the change in probabilities. (c) The psychophysics of probability will be studied by determining the psychophysical properties, in particular the size of just noticeable difference, of sequential and simultaneous displays of probabilities. (d) Concurrent with a, b, and c, theoretical work on general decision making will be done including updating of existing literature surveys and making an attempt to relate concepts useful in explaining decisions to concepts useful in other areas of experimental psychology. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, TEST METHODS), (*PSYCHOLOGY, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH), PROBABILITY, MEMORY(PSYCHOLOGY)

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE