Accession Number : AD0415827

Title :   A STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF DEMAND PATTERNS EVOLVING THROUGH TIME,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Fishman,George S.

Report Date : AUG 1963

Pagination or Media Count : 33

Abstract : After perusal of sample data, the observation often made about demand is that the variance is large compared to the mean. Periodicities of the sort uncovered here explain this phenomenon. For example, a demand process may be at the peak of a cycle one day and at the trough on another. Personnel at Beale argue that schedules for take-offs and landings determine when an aircraft is available for maintenance, and there fore determine the pattern of removals and replacements. The author is of the opinion that institutional maintenance procedures are indeed responsible for many of the uncovered character istics of demand. The primary contribution of this paper to demand prediction '4 been to show the diverse behavior of demand patterns that may actually exist. Wherever attempts at ex plaining these patterns have been made, it has been done on a purely conjectural basis and, hence, they are really ''food for thought'' rather than ''gospel truths.'' Future research ers in demand prediction should take account of these apparent diversities in demand. Hopefully they will find appropriate characterizations of the demand patterns then under scrutiny from pilot spectral analyses such as this one. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*AIR FORCE LOGISTICS COMMAND, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), (*MAINTENANCE, FLIGHT TESTING), TEST METHODS, TIME.

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE