Accession Number : AD0417901

Title :   THE SYSTEMATIC USE OF EXPERT JUDGMENT IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s) : Helmer, Olaf

Report Date : SEP 1963

Pagination or Media Count : 9

Abstract : By way of a summary, let me restate as follows: (1) I consider operations research a science, but an inexact one. (2) The operations analyst, as opposed to the pure scientist, emphasizes control rather then understanding. (3) The use of judgment in constructing and applying operations-analytical models in inescapable. (4) Since the use of judgment is a sine-qua-non, such judgment should be as expert and its application as systematic as possible. (5) It would be in the interest of raising the scientific standards of operations research to seek improved methods of identifying and measuring expertness and of employing experts efficiently both solitarily and in groups. (6) In particular, the utilization of groups of experts by consensus techniques, by the Delphi technique, by simulation procedures and operational gaming, should be further refined to the point where they will be generally acceptable as part of the stock-in-trade of operations research. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*OPERATIONS RESEARCH, DECISION MAKING), MILITARY STRATEGY, MILITARY TACTICS.

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE