Accession Number : AD0430059

Title :   SPECIAL ASPECTS OF ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM VARIOUS KINDS OF NUCLEAR WARS. PART II THE USE OF SCENARIOS FOR EVALUATING POSTATTACK DISUTILITIES,

Corporate Author : HUDSON INST INC HARMON-ON-HUDSON N Y

Personal Author(s) : Ayres,Robert U.

Report Date : 08 JAN 1964

Pagination or Media Count : 114

Abstract : Various approaches were explored to help identify the most salient environmental disutilities which might result from a nuclear war. Particular attention was directed toward an attempt to evaluate the likelihood of occurrence (assuming a nuclear attack of specified kind) and the severity of the effects. The principal analytic tool used is the scenario. Twelve scenarios were written covering a wide range of attacks and weapons effects. Each scenario is accompanied by a detailed commentary including examples of similar past events, relevant data (or sources), discussion of the applicability of chosen examples and possible branch points which would result in similar or parallel series of events. With each scenario is included a list of possible specific protective measures and countermeasures. A unified discussion is included of all the countermeasures suggested by the scenarios. The discussion is illustrated by a possible environmental countermeasures budget of moderate size (about 25 million dollars) guided, at least partly, by some specific cost-effectiveness criteria. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*NUCLEAR WARFARE, ECOLOGY), (*DISASTERS, ECOLOGY), DAMAGE, EPIDEMIOLOGY, AGRICULTURE, DIET, EROSION, DISEASES, FIRES, PUBLIC HEALTH, INSECTS, ANIMALS, CLIMATE, INDUSTRIES, POPULATION, URBAN AREAS, RURAL AREAS, AMMUNITION DAMAGE, HUMANS, SURVIVAL(PERSONNEL), COUNTERMEASURES

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE