Accession Number : AD0458367

Title :   DYNAMIC INFERENCE.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept. on Research in the Control of Complex Systems.

Corporate Author : MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Howard, Ronald A.

Report Date : DEC 1964

Pagination or Media Count : 34

Abstract : When from the pattern of observable variables the probability distributions of process parameters is inferred and then these distributions are used t pedict the future course of the process; this is called Dynamic Inference. For a military illustration of this problem the case of detecting subbmarines using a fixed sonar station is considered. A business application can arise in marketing. The problems discussed are illustrated graphically. Two stochastic processes are pictured, the first providing the parameters of the second, and the second having an observable output. There are some problems where the parameters previously generated by the first stochastic process affect the future parameters generated by the process, and others where previous observable variables can affect future observable variables. Cases are possible where previous observable variables have an effect on the parameter generation process. All of these possiblilites are indicated by the delay pates. The model developed can theoretically treat all of these cases, but its present application is restricted to the case where none of the delay branches is present. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, THEORY), (*PROBABILITY, THEORY), CONTROL SEQUENCES, SEQUENCES(MATHEMATICS), CONTROL SYSTEMS, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MATHEMATICAL LOGIC, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, DECISION THEORY, SUBMARINES, DETECTION, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS.

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE