Accession Number : AD0475380

Title :   A DYNAMIC INVENTORY MODEL USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Reilly, Joseph V., Jr.

Report Date : 1965

Pagination or Media Count : 32

Abstract : Inventory systems may be analyzed using techniques which were originally devised to study the dynamic response of servomechanisms. The paper uses these methods to study an inventory system using exponential smoothing to predict a demand which is assumed to have a linear trend with uncorrelated noise components. The statistical properties of the estimator are investigated, and both exact and limiting expressions for its mean and variance are derived. The model is assumed to have a fixed time lag between the placing of a replinishment order and its receipt, and the system response is determined for impulse, step and ramp inputs. The choice of a smoothing constant is discussed, and the effect of the choice on the variance of the forecast equation, and the response time of the system is analyzed. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*INVENTORY CONTROL, LINEAR SYSTEMS), (*INVENTORY ANALYSIS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), CONTROL SYSTEMS, MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS, SERIES(MATHEMATICS), MATHEMATICAL LOGIC, LOGISTICS, EQUATIONS, GRAPHICS, NETWORKS, FUNCTIONS(MATHEMATICS), NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, INVENTORY.

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE