Accession Number : AD0480609

Title :   PROBABILISTIC DERIVATION OF OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE SCHEDULES FOR CYCLICAL EQUIPMENT.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL AIR TEST FACILITY LAKEHURST NJ SHIP INSTALLATIONS

Personal Author(s) : Kraut, Willi K.

Report Date : 07 APR 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 33

Abstract : A theoretical study concerned with the mathematical treatment of maintenance data acquired from the records of the TC13 catapult at NATF(SI) is presented. A mathematical approach is presented for determining equipment maintenance schedules to help reduce equipment malfunctions and resultant downtimes. Methods are derived for determining the optimum number of satisfactory equipment operating cycles after which preventive maintenance is to be performed. The TC13 catapult was chosen to illustrate derived methods. Wartime operations of a one-catapult aircraft carrier were simulated through use of a 1604 Control Data computer. Techniques used included a finite Markov chain to describe reliability, Monte Carlo simulation to estimate transition probabilities of the Markov chain, curve fitting to approximate log normal downtime and launching time probability distribution functions, and simulation of three independent probability distribution functions for 10,000 days of aircraft-carrier operations. Some of the statistical and computer methodologies should be of benefit to those analysts solving large-scale operations-research type problems that involve probability distribution functions of a discrete nature as applied to cyclical-type equipment.

Descriptors :   *OPERATIONS RESEARCH), (*MAINTENANCE, PROBABILITY, SCHEDULING, CATAPULTS, FAILURE(MECHANICS), STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS, RELIABILITY, MONTE CARLO METHOD, CURVE FITTING, STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS, OPTIMIZATION.

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE