Accession Number : AD0600139

Title :   BASES FOR PREFERENCES AMONG THREE-OUTCOME BETS,

Corporate Author : MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR

Personal Author(s) : Lichenstein,Sarah

Report Date : MAY 1964

Pagination or Media Count : 22

Abstract : This experiment compared the moment functions of a bet as predictors of choices among bets with the subjectively expected utility (SEU) maximization model. Bet parameters of Expected Value (EV), Variance (V), Skewness (Sk), and probabilities were independently varied in 182 3-outcome bets. Each of 12 Ss bid on each bet and played some bets for real money. Ss preferred high EV and low V, but had no preferences within Sk or probability levels. Sets of bets existed which were equal in all parameters; within such sets, Ss preferred bets with the largest least likely amount. The moment-function approach was rejected; the SEU model was not. A lexicographic ordering of variables was suggested. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, PROBABILITY), REASONING, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, GAME THEORY, PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS, BEHAVIOR

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE