Accession Number : AD0603110

Title :   MARKOV CHAIN THEORY APPLIED TO THE PREDICTION OF RETIREMENT RATES,

Corporate Author : PERSONNEL RESEARCH LAB LACKLAND AFB TEX

Personal Author(s) : Harding,Francis D. ; Merck,John W.

Report Date : JUN 1964

Pagination or Media Count : 7

Abstract : The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying Markov chain theory to predict officer retirement rates over selected time periods. The chain of career states is based on total years of military service. Possible categorization for projecting group retirement rates is illustrated by distributing the 1962 officer roster according to flying status and according to career area. Data are the actual changes during the first half of 1962. Broader and more complex input information will be required to provide projections for use in personnel planning. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*OFFICER PERSONNEL, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT), (*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, MAINTENANCE PERSONNEL, ENGINEERS, SCIENTISTS, ELECTRONIC TECHNICIANS, PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMPUTERS

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE