Accession Number : AD0617773

Title :   STOCHASTIC DUELS WITH HOMING,

Corporate Author : SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Williams,Trevor

Report Date : 18 MAY 1965

Pagination or Media Count : 35

Abstract : Duels where both marksmen 'home' or 'zero in' on one another are here considered, and the effect of this on the win probability is determined. It is proved generally that if the over-all hit probability is fairly and naturally defined, the only possible result of homing must be to worsen a duelist's performance. Next it is shown that a negative binomial distribution of conditional hit probability over rounds exhibits the effect of homing and leads to win probabilities that can be straightforwardly evaluated. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the hit probability and homing from field data is outlined. The solutions of the duels are displayed as contour maps. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*GAME THEORY, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES), (*STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, GAME THEORY), PROBABILITY, KILL PROBABILITIES

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE