Accession Number : AD0621924

Title :   CIRCULATION-CLOUD PROGNOSTIC RELATIONSHIPS: SUMMER AND FALL.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. for 1 Oct 64-31 Jul 65,

Corporate Author : UNITED AIRCRAFT CORP EAST HARTFORD CONN

Personal Author(s) : Chisholm,Donald A. ; Lassow,Gordon B.

Report Date : SEP 1965

Pagination or Media Count : 81

Abstract : Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities (REEP) equations were derived from summer and fall data samples to diagnose cloud amounts from circulation and moisture prognoses. Equations were derived for total-, low-, middle-, and high-cloud amounts, and for the time change of total-cloud amount. Sets of equations were derived for 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-hr forecast intervals. In deriving the equations, persistence and moisture content were found to be the most significant predictors. Of lesser significance were temperature and circulation features (500-mb height, thickness, and vertical velocity). When tested on independent data, the REEP equations gave better results than persistence for each cloud amount category and for each forecast interval . (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CLOUD COVER, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), (*WEATHER FORECASTING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), ATMOSPHERIC MOTION, MOISTURE, CLOUDS, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, METEOROLOGY

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE