Accession Number : AD0631781
Title : FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED INPUT DATA FIDELITY UPON THE DETERMINATION OF POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES IN A SIMULATED THREAT-DIAGNOSIS SYSTEM.
Descriptive Note : Final rept., 15 Mar-1 Aug 64,
Corporate Author : OHIO STATE UNIV COLUMBUS HUMAN PERFORMANCE CENTER
Personal Author(s) : Schum,David A. ; Goldstein,Irwin L. ; Southard,Jack F.
Report Date : DEC 1965
Pagination or Media Count : 21
Abstract : This is the fifth in a series of experiments on Bayesian diagnostic systems. In this experiment two procedures for obtaining a posteriori (P (H/D)) probability estimates were compared under conditions of low fidelity of input data and various levels of time-stress. In one procedure a computer aggregated the subjects' a priori (P (D/H)) estimates. In the alternate procedure the a posteriori probabilities were estimated by the subjects without computer aid. The results favor the computer-aided procedure and tend to support the use of automated Bayesian hypothesis-selection procedures in diagnostic systems. (Author)
Descriptors : (*THREAT EVALUATION, *DECISION MAKING), (*STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE), COMPUTERS, SIMULATION, PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING, DATA PROCESSING
Subject Categories : Psychology
Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE