Accession Number : AD0631781

Title :   FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED INPUT DATA FIDELITY UPON THE DETERMINATION OF POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES IN A SIMULATED THREAT-DIAGNOSIS SYSTEM.

Descriptive Note : Final rept., 15 Mar-1 Aug 64,

Corporate Author : OHIO STATE UNIV COLUMBUS HUMAN PERFORMANCE CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Schum,David A. ; Goldstein,Irwin L. ; Southard,Jack F.

Report Date : DEC 1965

Pagination or Media Count : 21

Abstract : This is the fifth in a series of experiments on Bayesian diagnostic systems. In this experiment two procedures for obtaining a posteriori (P (H/D)) probability estimates were compared under conditions of low fidelity of input data and various levels of time-stress. In one procedure a computer aggregated the subjects' a priori (P (D/H)) estimates. In the alternate procedure the a posteriori probabilities were estimated by the subjects without computer aid. The results favor the computer-aided procedure and tend to support the use of automated Bayesian hypothesis-selection procedures in diagnostic systems. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*THREAT EVALUATION, *DECISION MAKING), (*STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE), COMPUTERS, SIMULATION, PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING, DATA PROCESSING

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Computer Hardware
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE