Accession Number : AD0635248

Title :   PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis.

Corporate Author : TEXAS A AND M UNIV COLLEGE STATION

Personal Author(s) : Koonce, James Fitzhugh

Report Date : MAY 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 77

Abstract : The use of the methods presented in this report are limited only by the availability of accurate data. Any organization that does not presently employ a system of preparing and using planning data will undoubtably find it difficult to initiate such a data gathering network. However, use of the statistical techniques embodied in this report will provide a manpower planning system that is more up-to-date than most now in use. These methods give realistic planning figures that take into account the likelihood that some projects will not materialize. In addition, many other planning costs, such as hiring and layoff, purchase and salvage, and several types of operating costs, can be derived from such a manpower plan. Additional study in these areas is presently under way by the research group. The major result of using these techniques will be to provide top management with a 'look-ahead' capability that will pin-point real and potential problem areas in budgeting and in large fluctuations in manning. By identifying these problems before they arise, economical and efficient improvements to long range plans can be made early enough to avoid expensive mistakes. By thus preventing or greatly reducing large wastes, the organization will be able to fulfill its mission more economically. In short, this research has developed a powerful tool for management's use. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*MANPOWER, *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL), (*PROBABILITY, MANPOWER), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE