Accession Number : AD0638616

Title :   BAYES SEQUENTIAL STRATEGIES FOR CROSSING A FIELD CONTAINING ABSORPTION POINTS.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.

Corporate Author : STANFORD UNIV CALIF DEPT OF STATISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Zacks,Shelemyahu

Report Date : 08 AUG 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 27

Abstract : A sequential decision problem is considered in which N particles have to cross a given field. Two alternative crossing paths are available. An unknown number of absorption points J sub 1 and J sub 2 are planted at each of the crossing paths. The bivariate prior distribution of (J sub 1, J sub 2) is given. If a particle passes close to an absorption point it may survive with probability s, 0 < s < 1. If a particle is absorbed, both the particle and the absorption point are ruined. There is no replacement of ruined absorption points. All absorption points act independently. The particles cross the field in a consecutive order, and a crossing path can be chosen for each particle. The objective is to maximize the expected number of survivors. The Bayes sequential procedure is characterized. The conditions under which the Bayes strategy is determined by the maximal posterior survival probabilities are specified. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS, *DECISION THEORY), (*ABSORPTION, DECISION THEORY), MODEL THEORY, PARTICLES

Subject Categories : Physical Chemistry
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE