Accession Number : AD0639751

Title :   METHODOLOGY FOR POSTATTACK RESEARCH.

Descriptive Note : Research rept.,

Corporate Author : HUDSON INST INC HARMON-ON-HUDSON N Y

Personal Author(s) : Ayres,Robert U.

Report Date : 01 AUG 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 46

Abstract : The report discusses the methodology of postattack research. A hierarchical approach is described, in which the objects of analysis range from simple orgnaisms and artifacts to complex human societies and ecosystems. The notion of 'response' to a perturbation which is appropriate for simple systems is extended to encompass the wider notion of 'disutility' in describing the effects of a nuclear attack on the economy or the society of the nation as a whole. The appropriate uses of devices such as scenarios, games, case histories, metaphors and models for various purposes is discussed. The major point is that non-rigorous constructs may be extremely helpful in training, raising the level of the discussion, and generating insights, but cannot be used for predictive purposes as models can. A 'state-of-the-art' estimate of various models is included. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CIVIL DEFENSE, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH), BEHAVIOR, SOCIOLOGY, RADIATION EFFECTS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DAMAGE

Subject Categories : Civil Defense

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE