Accession Number : AD0644492

Title :   ON DAMAGE ASSESSMENT MODELS,

Corporate Author : HUDSON INST INC HARMON-ON-HUDSON N Y

Personal Author(s) : Ayres,Robert U.

Report Date : 30 DEC 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 63

Abstract : Comparisons are presented for 14 computerized damage-assessment models developed by 8 organizations. Comparative methods of specifying designated and actual ground-zeros, location and distribution of population and other assets, casualties, property damage and fallout deposition are described. Subsidiary models for damage and injury as a function of burst distance (for blast), fallout intensity as a function of weapon size, distance and wind speed, radiation mortality as a function of equivalent residual dose (ERD), and firespread as a function of fuel density, distribution and wind conditions, among others, are discussed. Approximations and potential sources of error are listed together with some comments regarding the need for sensitivity analysis and the implications of model uncertainties for modes of use.

Descriptors :   (*CIVIL DEFENSE, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT), (*NUCLEAR WARFARE, FALLOUT), POPULATION, NUCLEAR WARFARE CASUALTIES, BLAST, FIRES, NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WAR GAMES

Subject Categories : Civil Defense

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE