Accession Number : AD0650223

Title :   SOME COMPONENTS OF PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR HUMAN PERFORMANCE CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Phillips,Lawrence D.

Report Date : JAN 1966

Pagination or Media Count : 79

Abstract : In most studies of probabilistic inference, subjects have behaved conservatively, i.e., they have revised their probability estimates less than the amount prescribed by Bayes's theorem. This study attempts to shed further light on the conservatism effect by analyzing the process of inductive inference into two components, and determining the effects on conservatism of these two components. One component is deduction: determining the probabilistic relationships between the datum observed and the hypotheses being considered. The second component is combination of the data: combining the effects of individual items of data in order to make an inference based on all the data observed.

Descriptors :   (*PROBABILITY, INTERFERENCE), (*BEHAVIOR, THEOREMS), PSYCHOLOGY, PHILOSOPHY, MATHEMATICS, TRAINING, PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, MEDICAL RESEARCH, RELIABILITY, MILITARY PSYCHOLOGY

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE