Accession Number : AD0656940

Title :   BUDGE ALLOCATION FOR SHELTER SYSTEMS.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : RESEARCH TRIANGLE INST DURHAM N C OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND ECONOMICS DIV

Personal Author(s) : McMullan,Philip S. ; Wright,James C. ; Anderson,Helen S. ; Trustman,Stanley

Report Date : JUN 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 107

Abstract : A computer model which prepares optimum civil defense shelter postures built upon the base of the current National Fallout Shelter Survey is developed, programmed, and demonstrated. 'Optimum' can be based on the user-specified objective of either minimum fatalities or minimum casualties. The user determines the level of risk by supplying an attack environment (both blast and fallout) which is used to calculate the probability of fatality (or casualty) for a person in each existing shelter and in each proposed shelter option in each standard location. Population is then assigned to existing and proposed shelter in an optimum manner, subject to the specified budget. The mathematical formulation is equivalent to a linear program. The model also permits an evaluation of shelter improvement programs against any user supplied attack environment. At the option of the user, the following inputs may be varied: (a) budget level, (b) degree of risk or hazard, (c) definition of shelter fallout or blast vulnerability, and (d) cost per space of shelter. The model was demonstrated using the state of Rhode Island. The model can be used primarily in synthesis and analysis of 'near future' shelter systems and can be modified for use in more comprehensive system studies (e.g., combined warning, movement, and shelter system studies) and cost-effectiveness evaluations. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*FALLOUT SHELTERS, *BUDGETS), (*CIVIL DEFENSE, BUDGETS), OPTIMIZATION, PROBABILITY, COST EFFECTIVENESS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Structural Engineering and Building Technology
      Civil Defense

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE