Accession Number : AD0663459

Title :   A NUMERICAL SCHEME FOR THE PREDICTION OF HURRICANE AND TYPHOON MOVEMENT.

Descriptive Note : Progress rept. no. 1,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Renard,Robert J.

Report Date : DEC 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 58

Abstract : The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: (a) Numerical geostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U. S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility's (FNWF) operationally-produced smoothed isobaric height fields, called SR. (b) The numerical-steering prediction is objectively modified to adjust for bias (i.e., deficiency in both zonal and meridonal motion) by utilizing errors made in the most recent 12- and 24-hour numerical-steering forecasts. Stratification of error statistics by area, trajectory and stage of storm, intercomparison with ESSA's NHC-64 technique, discussion of merits and deficiencies of the research program relative to operational forecasts and current experiments at FNWF, are discussed.

Descriptors :   (*TROPICAL CYCLONES, MOTION), (*WEATHER FORECASTING, TROPICAL CYCLONES), ATMOSPHERE MODELS, CORIOLIS EFFECT, METEOROLOGICAL CHARTS, AIR MASS ANALYSIS, OPTIMIZATION

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE