Accession Number : AD0666537

Title :   INDUCED CHANGES IN TRADE AND PAYMENTS.

Descriptive Note : Research paper,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA PROGRAM ANALYSIS DIV

Personal Author(s) : Piekarz,Rolf ; Stekler,Lois Ernstoff

Report Date : NOV 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 34

Abstract : The study derives the parameters needed to estimate the effect of an autonomous change in one country's imports on world trade. From the experience of the 1952-1963 period, one obtains for each of the 12 major industrial nations and the rest of the world (as a group) least-squares regression estimates for two sets of parameters: (1) the impact on imports of a change in exports, and (2) the geographic distribution of the import change. Incorporating these results in a set of simultaneous equations, one finds the impact of an exogenous change in the imports of a single country on the exports and trade balance of that country and all others. The findings show that aside from the United States, all major industrial countries adjust their imports to changes in export earnings. US exports and balance of payments, as a rule, absorb a large portion of the worldwide trade disturbances generated by any country's import change. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*COMMERCE, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, DISTRIBUTION(ECONOMICS), FOREIGN POLICY, MONEY, LEAST SQUARES METHOD, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, ECONOMICS, UNITED STATES, EUROPE, CANADA

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE