Accession Number : AD0666948

Title :   SOLAR EVENT FORECAST AIDS.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. May 65-Nov 67,

Corporate Author : TRAVELERS RESEARCH CENTER INC HARTFORD CONN

Personal Author(s) : Enger,Isadore

Report Date : MAR 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 31

Abstract : The study describes the development of objective aids for predicting daily values of 10.7 cm flux measured at Ottawa. The step-wise regression technique was applied to 18 years of data to develop regression equations expressing flux 1, 2, 3, and 4 days ahead as functions of the past history of flux. The equations were used to compute frequency distributions of the forecast errors to be expected when the equations are applied under real-time conditions. Similar regression equations were also obtained for predicting flux 5, 6, 7, ..., 30 days ahead but no error distributions were computed. An attempt was made to improve the one- to four-day forecasts by including in the regression equations the recent history of Zurich sunspot numbers. The results were negative; flux alone did as well as flux and sunspots together. Two reports concerned with objective techniques for predicting the occurrence of solar flares were prepared previously under this contract. Abstracts of both are presented herein. Both the flare and flux techniques are being used routinely as forecast aids by the Solar Forecast Facility of the Air Weather Service. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SOLAR DISTURBANCES, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), EXTRATERRESTRIAL RADIO WAVES, SOLAR FLARES, SUNSPOTS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, CANADA

Subject Categories : Astrophysics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE