Accession Number : AD0667784

Title :   JET FIGHTER ACCIDENT/ATTRITION RATES IN PEACETIME: AN APPLICATION OF RELIABILITY GROWTH MODELLING,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Kamins,Milton

Report Date : MAR 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 38

Abstract : Two statistical examinations were made of accident and attrition data for all jet fighters that had seen substantial Air Force usage by 1963: the first to distinguish gross factors affecting safety (landing speed, single versus twin engines, similarity to a previous model, and age): the second to compare different methods for analysis and prediction. The first examination showed that (1) aircraft reliability affecting safety improves with years of service as long as routine, comprehensive maintenance and product improvement programs are pursued; (2) during the last 20 years, materiel failures have become more important in jet fighter accidents; (3) two engines may be no more beneficial to safety than a heavy carry-over of technical experience from one model to the next made by the same company; (4) landing speed is less important than either. The second examination confirmed these conclusions and also indicated that the hyperbolic model of reliability growth developed in RM-5346-PR is preferable to a learning-curve model in three respects: It can represent trends more accurately, is easier to use, and permits statistically and practically meaningful confidence limits to be calculated for past experience or future projections of accident or attrition rates. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*JET FIGHTERS, RELIABILITY), AVIATION ACCIDENTS, ATTRITION, MAINTENANCE, AIR FORCE PROCUREMENT, SPARE PARTS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, AVIATION SAFETY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, AIRSPEED, COSTS, AIRCRAFT LANDINGS, FAILURE(MECHANICS), CURVE FITTING, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES

Subject Categories : Attack and Fighter Aircraft
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE