Accession Number : AD0668107

Title :   EXPERIMENTS IN GROUP PREDICTION,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Dalkey,N. C.

Report Date : MAR 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 14

Abstract : The usual way of using a group for the formulation of opinion is by way of face-to-face discussion in a committee, commission, or panel. A large number of recent investigations by social psychologists have demonstrated that face-to-face discussion has serious drawbacks. Chief among these are: influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure toward conformity. To ameliorate some of these difficulties, a procedure called Delphi has been developed at RAND. This procedure has three basic features: (1) Anonymity; (2) controlled feedback; and (3) statistical group response. The results of these exercises are briefly summarized as follows: (1) In almost all cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration; (2) the principle decrease is between the first and second rounds; and (3) most significant, for those cases where the accuracy of responses can be checked, the accuracy of the group response increases with iteration. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*GROUP DYNAMICS, *ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY)), (*PREDICTIONS, ACCURACY), PROBLEM SOLVING, DECISION MAKING, CONFORMITY, QUESTIONNAIRES, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, FEEDBACK, RELIABILITY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE