Accession Number : AD0675202

Title :   DETERMINATION OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTENCE BY A NON-MARKOVIAN STOCHASTIC CHAIN,

Corporate Author : AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CALIF EL SEGUNDO TECHNICAL OPERATIONS

Personal Author(s) : Chu,S. T.

Report Date : JUL 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 51

Abstract : A method is developed for determining cloud cover persistence from available climatological data. The use of a non-Markovian chain is proposed to represent the stochastic process of cloud cover occurrences. Such an approach is found to be superior to those using a simple Markovian chain that neglects the effect of diurnal variability of cloud cover occurrences. The validity of the non-Markovian model is initially established by a number of test cases in which known time series (three and four steps) are constructed from actual climatological data. Precise agreement is found between the event persistence of the known time series and that determined from the analysis. In addition, results of persistence of both clear (0/8 to 2/8 cloud cover) and cloudy (6/8 to 8/8 cloud cover) conditions determined analytically are compared with those from observations of three United States cities: Dayton, Ohio; Minot, North Dakota; and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Good agreement is found in all cases. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CLOUD COVER, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, DIURNAL VARIATIONS, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, SEQUENCES(MATHEMATICS), WEATHER FORECASTING, OHIO, NORTH DAKOTA, OKLAHOMA

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE