Accession Number : AD0681752

Title :   A FIFTEEN-YEAR FORECAST OF INFORMATION-PROCESSING TECHNOLOGY.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL SUPPLY SYSTEMS COMMAND WASHINGTON D C RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DIV

Personal Author(s) : Bernstein,George B.

Report Date : 20 JAN 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 187

Abstract : During Round II a group of outstanding experts in information-processing was asked to evaluate the Round I data bank to identify events of importance and interrelationships between the events. This group was made up of more than 45 of the top names from government, industry, and academia. Round II was a direct application of the normative approach. It should be stressed that Round I (last year's effort) was an attempt to provide a data base; whereas, Round II was an attempt to refine, extend, and structure the data base to enhance the value of this forecast for planning and system design personnel. After receiving the inputs from the panel of Round II experts, a refined list of potential events was produced. This list was used to develop a menu of alternative potential short-, mid-, and long-range goals; and to identify supporting events which may be desirable or even necessary to make these goals achievable. A relevance display technique was used to document alternative pathways from the current state-of-the-art to where it will be in the future. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DATA PROCESSING, PREDICTIONS), (*DOCUMENTS, PREDICTIONS), MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, CURVE FITTING, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, STANDARDIZATION, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, COMPUTERS, INPUT OUTPUT DEVICES, COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

Subject Categories : Information Science
      Computer Programming and Software
      Computer Hardware

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE