Accession Number : AD0683249

Title :   A NOTE ON HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN FORCE-STRUCTURE STUDIES,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s) : Emerson, D. E.

Report Date : FEB 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 10

Abstract : Strategic force-exchange models are achieving ever higher levels of complexity with the incorporation of missile defenses, sophisticated firing doctrines, and optimum allocation routines. A complementary approach is suggested in which it is required that uncertainties be introduced explicitly. When that is done, many uncertainties may be treated simultaneously. This step also permits the systematic use of expert opinion. In this approach, a statistical interpretation is made of the outcomes of a series of trial campaign calculations, in which the values of the uncertain factors for each trial are selected by sampling frequency distributions specified by the user. Results obtained with this approach provide indications of the likelihood that specified force objectives will be achieved and permit estimates of the required force size and/or cost to achieve specified levels of confidence.

Descriptors :   (*STRATEGIC WARFARE, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), OPTIMIZATION, UNCERTAINTY, WEAPON SYSTEMS, GUIDED MISSILES, PLANNING, MILITARY STRATEGY, THREAT EVALUATION, ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, INTERCEPTION PROBABILITIES, KILL PROBABILITIES, DEPLOYMENT, DECISION MAKING, MONTE CARLO METHOD, ALGORITHMS, CONFIDENCE LIMITS.

Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE