Accession Number : AD0687137

Title :   CLIMATIC NORMALS AS PREDICTORS. PART 4: VERIFICATION

Corporate Author : SAN FERNANDO VALLEY STATE COLL NORTHRIDGE CA

Personal Author(s) : Court, Arnold

PDF Url : AD0687137

Report Date : 01 Dec 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 53

Abstract : The length of the antecedent period for which the mean provides the minimum variance estimate of the next year's temperature, rainfall, and number of rainy days is calculated for a U.S. climatological benchmark station, a variety of foreign stations, and for percent of possible sunshine at 9 U.S. stations. Results verify the findings reported previously, and found by other authors, that the optimum record length varies widely from element to element and month to month, but shows some regional consistency. For all elements, stations, and months combined, all antecedent periods 10 to 40 years long yield averages which, on the whole, are about equal in predictive accuracy.

Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING, ACCURACY, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE, DIAGRAMS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, PERIODIC VARIATIONS, RAINFALL, SAMPLING, SOLAR RADIATION, TIME, WEATHER STATIONS

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE