Accession Number : AD0689543

Title :   ESTABLISHING CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ESTIMATES: AN EXAMINATION OF TWO MODELS.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA SYSTEMS EVALUATION DIV

Personal Author(s) : Gardner,Charles W. ; White,Thomas W.

Report Date : APR 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 77

Abstract : Casualty prediction in the case of nuclear war, and the confidence limits which can be placed on estimates of civilian fatalities are considered. Attention is directed at the uncertainties in casualty prediction introduced by the less than a dozen parameters used in two specific damage assessment models, namely the BRISK/FRISK and the QUICK COUNT models. The intent of the study is twofold: first, to develop a general method for measuring the degree of confidence to be associated with a specified fatality estimate, given the damage assessment model and appropriate inputs; and second, to demonstrate the method by example. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*NUCLEAR WARFARE CASUALTIES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), CONFIDENCE LIMITS, NUCLEAR WARFARE, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, CIVILIAN PERSONNEL, NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DAMAGE, UNCERTAINTY, RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION, FALLOUT, RADIATION TOLERANCE, CIVIL DEFENSE, DOSE RATE, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS

Subject Categories : Nuclear Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE