Accession Number : AD0689748
Title : THE PREDICTION OF OPERATIONAL SUCCESS.
Descriptive Note : Rept. for Sep 66-Dec 67,
Corporate Author : AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CALIF ENGINEERING SCIENCE OPERATIONS
Personal Author(s) : Duroux,Joseph W.
Report Date : 16 JUN 1969
Pagination or Media Count : 41
Abstract : A general procedure for obtaining a direct estimate of confidence in the success of a process is developed. The measure of confidence is an expected value of reliability based on a Bayesian a posteriori distribution. A flexible model of the a priori distribution permits the combination of a priori estimates with the results of either attribute (success or failure, or variate (measurement) testing. A self-contained applications section summarizes the methods of computation. (Author)
Descriptors : (*RELIABILITY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), CONFIDENCE LIMITS, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, STATISTICAL TESTS, SAMPLING, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, ROCKET ENGINES
Subject Categories : Operations Research
Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE