Accession Number : AD0689748

Title :   THE PREDICTION OF OPERATIONAL SUCCESS.

Descriptive Note : Rept. for Sep 66-Dec 67,

Corporate Author : AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CALIF ENGINEERING SCIENCE OPERATIONS

Personal Author(s) : Duroux,Joseph W.

Report Date : 16 JUN 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 41

Abstract : A general procedure for obtaining a direct estimate of confidence in the success of a process is developed. The measure of confidence is an expected value of reliability based on a Bayesian a posteriori distribution. A flexible model of the a priori distribution permits the combination of a priori estimates with the results of either attribute (success or failure, or variate (measurement) testing. A self-contained applications section summarizes the methods of computation. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*RELIABILITY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), CONFIDENCE LIMITS, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, STATISTICAL TESTS, SAMPLING, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, ROCKET ENGINES

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE