Accession Number : AD0690988

Title :   THE DELPHI METHOD, II: STRUCTURE OF EXPERIMENTS,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Brown,B. ; Cochran,S. ; Dalkey,N.

Report Date : JUN 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 137

Abstract : The paper presents compilation of the experimental designs, questionnaires, and resulting group response data representing the raw materials of a Rand evaluation of Delphi procedures. (Analysis of the data and major conclusions are presented in AD-690 498). The Delphi technique uses an anonymous, orderly program of sequential individual interrogations, with controlled feedback from respondents between interrogations, to elicit and refine group judgments where exact knowledge is unavailable. Different experiments tested different hypotheses. One was designed to compare the relative accuracy of group answers obtained by the Delphi questionnaire-feedback method with those obtained by a structured, face-to-face discussion.

Descriptors :   (*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, DECISION MAKING), (*DECISION MAKING, *GROUP DYNAMICS), REASONING, REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY), PREDICTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION, QUESTIONNAIRES, FEEDBACK, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), TEST CONSTRUCTION(PSYCHOLOGY), ITERATIONS

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE