Accession Number : AD0691823

Title :   THE USE OF TCHEBYCHEFF-TYPE INEQUALITIES TO BOUND THE UPPER LIMIT OF A COST ESTIMATE.

Descriptive Note : Research paper,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA COST ANALYSIS GROUP

Personal Author(s) : Zusman,Morris J.

Report Date : JAN 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 42

Abstract : A method is presented that can be used to calculate an upper tolerance limit on the probability that the actual cost of a future system will exceed the estimated cost by an amount delta, as a function of delta. The method may also be used to test whether estimated cost differences between alternatives are significant. The method which uses Tchebycheff-type inequalities to bound the system cost only requires the assumption that the maximum cost of any element be finite and the estimated cost be an unbiased estimator. A set of inequalities is presented so that, if the analyst is willing to make additional assumptions about the form of the underlying cost probability distribution (e.g., unimodal), tighter tolerances may be drawn. The method is illustrated by a hypothetical example. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*COSTS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), CONFIDENCE LIMITS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, INEQUALITIES, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, STATISTICAL TESTS, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

Subject Categories : Administration and Management

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE