Accession Number : AD0693094

Title :   SEARCH AND CHOICE IN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS PLANNING. VOLUME XVIII. PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR VEHICLE OPERATING CONSEQUENCES.

Descriptive Note : Research rept.,

Corporate Author : MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE DEPT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Guenther,Karl W.

Report Date : JAN 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 156

Abstract : The models presented here give the analyst, planner, or engineer capability to predict vehicle operating consequences. Relevant technological variables are transformed into useful output - travel time, fuel consumption, and maintenance cost. This output may then be used in evaluating cost and service performance measures, eventually relating technology properly to the broader questions raised in transportation systems analysis. Travel time prediction is based on the controlling velocity concept. Average speed on any link segment will be determined by the most constraining of several possible limits. These include arbitrary exogenous speed limits, vehicle limitations, route characteristics, traffic, and random delays. Inclusion of surface roughness as a velocity control is noteworthy, particularly for secondary roads and off-road operation. The fuel consumption model builds on the travel time model. Actual power expended is the independent predictive variable, and thus a true casual relationship is used for estimating. Maintenance costs are predicted by a third model. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*TRANSPORTATION, *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL), (*TRAFFIC, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), PREDICTIONS, PASSENGER VEHICLES, TIME, MAINTENANCE, COSTS, VELOCITY, ROADS, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, RAILROADS, TRACKED VEHICLES, DECISION MAKING

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Surface Transportation and Equipment

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE