Accession Number : AD0696217

Title :   A CRITIQUE OF NAROLL'S STATISTICAL APPROACH TO TESTING CONTEMPORARY HYPOTHESES ABOUT STRATEGIC DETERRENCE WITH HISTORICAL DATA.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NORTHWESTERN UNIV EVANSTON ILL DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s) : Milburn,Thomas W.

Report Date : MAY 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 30

Abstract : Raoul Naroll has developed a method of utilizing historical data to test contemporary hypotheses concerning optimum military and political strategies which nations may employ in dealing with one another. The data covers long time spans in order to maximize the independence of cases and, thereby, to permit the application of statistical probability models to historical data in ways not feasible before. Naroll has also developed several methods of data quality control inspired by concepts from industrial quality control. Naroll's historical approach is described, criticized, and evaluated as a means of testing strategic hypotheses and providing strategic planners with a sounder basis upon which to complete their missions. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DETERRENCE, THEORY), (*MILITARY STRATEGY, *STATISTICAL TESTS), REVIEWS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DECISION MAKING, POLITICAL SCIENCE, FOREIGN POLICY, SOCIAL SCIENCES, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, SAMPLING, MATHEMATICAL LOGIC, INVARIANCE, MEASURE THEORY, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, RELIABILITY

Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE