Accession Number : AD0701375

Title :   EVALUATING PROBABILITY FORECASTS.

Descriptive Note : Technical memo.,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL OFFUTT AFB NEBR

Personal Author(s) : Kennedy,James S. ; Epperson,Preston G.

Report Date : 15 DEC 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 13

Abstract : The accuracy of an aggregate of probability forecasts involves two basic attributes which are called reliability and sharpness. By expanding the equation of the Brier-Allen Probability Score, consistent definitions of reliability and sharpness are derived in which the correlation coefficient between forecasts and outcomes has a key role. Presented is a graphic means of comparing aggregates of probability forecasts in terms of their reliability and sharpness. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, ACCURACY), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), PROBABILITY

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE