Accession Number : AD0701914

Title :   MEASUREMENT OF CRITICAL PRODUCTION CAPACITIES FOR MODELS OF THE POSTATTACK ECONOMY.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : RESEARCH ANALYSIS CORP MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Bull,Elwyn M. ; Sobin,Bernard

Report Date : FEB 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 52

Abstract : The paper describes currently available methodology for estimating production capacities of industrial facilities that survive a nuclear attack on the US and proposes improvements in estimation of such capacities. The first section deals with identification of capacities (called 'critical' capacities) for which accurate estimates are most important. It discusses problems encountered in using models developed at RAND, RAC, IDA, NPA, and OEP. The second section reviews existing measures of industrial capacity to determine their adequacy for postattack models. Most measures are designed for peacetime conditions. Measures developed by NPA and IEB for emergency economic models allow for extra work shifts in critical industries. However, none of the current statistics attempt to measure capacity conversion possibilities for emergency production. The third section demonstrates an approach to improved capacity estimation with a case study of the flour-milling industry. It is estimated that flour capacity could be increased to nearly 10 times the milling industry's normal capacity through (a) increasing operating hours, (b) changing the output to whole wheat flour, and (c) converting the feed industry to production of whole wheat flour. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*NUCLEAR WARFARE, INDUSTRIES), (*INDUSTRIES, SURVIVAL(PERSONNEL)), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PRODUCTION, CIVIL DEFENSE, FOOD, RECOVERY, ECONOMICS

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Nuclear Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE