Accession Number : AD0703486

Title :   AN ANALYTICAL METHOD FOR DETERMINING KILL PROBABILITY AGAINST MULTI-COMPARTMENTED TARGETS,

Corporate Author : CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA OPERATIONS EVALUATION GROUP

Personal Author(s) : Dietz,S. K.

Report Date : SEP 1964

Pagination or Media Count : 14

Abstract : Analytical methods are developed to determine the probability of killing a target when accumulated damage is important. A Markov chain model is used to characterize the damage status. The Markov states are cumulative numbers of exploding hits on the target and the transitional probabilities are probabilities of n exploding hits in a shot (n = 0, 1, 2,...N). When groups of weapons are fired in a shot, the probabilities of 0, 1, 2,... etc. hits may be obtained from an existing monte carlo program. Probabilities of hits are transformed into probabilities of exploding hits using the weapon reliability. Finally, with a table of conditional kill probabilities, the probability of killing the target in m shots is calculated. The situation in which a single weapon is fired in a shot is treated as a special simple case which is solved using the binominal distribution rather than the Markov chain model. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*TARGETS, KILL PROBABILITIES), (*KILL PROBABILITIES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), OPERATIONS RESEARCH, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, PROBABILITY, STATISTICAL PROCESSES

Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE