Accession Number : AD0705084

Title :   METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PRESENT AND FUTURE INSURGENT STRENGTH.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Sullivan,Edward Francis

Report Date : OCT 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 64

Abstract : An estimation of the extent of an insurgency appears to be a prerequisite for determining effective counterinsurgency policies. A method is developed to estimate a confidence interval for present insurgent strength based on consumption of a selected commodity. By examining the anticipated effects of dynamic counterinsurgency programs on additions and deletions to insurgent strength, estimates of future insurgent strength can be attempted. For this purpose, recursive relationships are developed describing changes in insurgent strength which occur with changes in level of a single government activity or multiple governmental activities. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*INSURGENCY, MANPOWER), (*MILITARY PERSONNEL, INSURGENCY), MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COUNTERINSURGENCY, THEORY, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE, ORGANIZATIONS, POPULATION, THESES

Subject Categories : Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE