Accession Number : AD0705522

Title :   DECISION RULES FOR REACTING TO NOISY SIGNALS FROM A WARNING SYSTEM.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept. no. 31, Sep 67-Sep 69,

Corporate Author : CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY CENTER FOR RESEARCH IN MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Personal Author(s) : Tjian,T. Y. Hans

Report Date : FEB 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 89

Abstract : Using the minimization of total expected discounted cost as the criterion for optimality, this study investigated via dynamic programming, a class of stochastic sequential decision problems known as warning problems. Specifically, the study investigates two types of warning systems (Type I and Type II) with single and multiple signals. The dynamic programming models of Type I for single and multiple signals yielded a critical waiting time rule (CWT) as well as a critical probability value (CPV) rule as an optimal decision rule. However, for Type II, with two signals, the optimal rule is a CPV rule, but the corresponding waiting time rule, in general, is shown a CWT rule. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CONTROL SYSTEMS, INFORMATION THEORY), (*STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS), (*SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS, *DECISION THEORY), DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, PRODUCTION CONTROL, QUALITY CONTROL, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, OPTIMIZATION

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE