
Accession Number : AD0706055
Title : INVESTIGATION OF THE SENSITIVITY OF A PATROLLING SUBMARINE'S CAPABILITY TO GAIN A DETECTION AS A FUNCTION OF INCREASING SURFACE SHIP SPEEDS.
Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,
Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Personal Author(s) : Cyr,Joseph Henry ; Santos,Leonard Bento
Report Date : OCT 1969
Pagination or Media Count : 126
Abstract : Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10knot submarine patrolling a backandforth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which are extended to include the assumption of a normal distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. (Author)
Descriptors : (*MERCHANT VESSELS, *UNDERSEA WARFARE), VELOCITY, DETECTION, PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, VULNERABILITY, PATROL CRAFT, THESES
Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE