Accession Number : AD0706317

Title :   TRANSPORTATION EXAMPLE OF STATISTICAL VALIDATION FOR SIMULATION MODELS.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIV DALLAS TEX DEPT OF STATISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Gafarian,A. V. ; Walsh,John E.

Report Date : 30 APR 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 16

Abstract : Statistical validation of simulation models has much interest in military applications. In particular, there is interest in transportation problems during emergency and standard situations. However, collection of suitable data is difficult and almost necessarily is limited to standard situations. Such a situation is examined in this paper. Vehicle traffic on a section of a freeway (expressway) near an on-ramp is simulated by a Monte Carlo model. Ability of the model to represent actual traffic flow is investigated by observing operational systems and making comparisons with results from corresponding simulations. Measures of effectiveness are used that compare statistics for operational systems with values of these properties for corresponding simulations (to see if the difference is significant). Separate comparisons are made for three kinds of statistics: (1) Average travel times for vehicles entering on the freeway; (2) Average travel times for vehicles entering on-ramp; (3) Some averages of velocities. Two phases occur, depending on the data for operational systems. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*TRANSPORTATION, MATHEMATICAL MODELS), (*TRAFFIC, SIMULATION), STATISTICAL TESTS, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, MONTE CARLO METHOD

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE