Accession Number : AD0707945

Title :   DEVELOPMENT OF BASE TECHNIQUES FOR CEILING AND VISIBILITY PREDICTION.

Descriptive Note : Interim rept. Jan 67-Dec 69,

Corporate Author : WEATHER BUREAU SILVER SPRING MD TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LAB

Personal Author(s) : Keaty,John ; Allen,Roger A.

Report Date : FEB 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 26

Abstract : Base equations have been developed for 12 terminals representing nearly all sections of the conterminous United States for predicting ceiling and visibility 2, 3, 5, 8, and 12 hours in advance. The equations are based upon simple predictor variables as observed at a network of stations surrounding and including the predictand station. Forecasts made by these equations are in terms of the probability of occurrence of each of 5 categories of ceiling and 5 of visibility. The equations have been tested on independent data and the verification scores have been adjusted to take partial account of differences in the climatic frequency distribution of the predictands. It was found that a considerable degree of predictability is provided by these equations, particularly for projections of only a few hours. The equations are very stable because they are based on large data samples, although some degradation of scores occurred when applying the equations to independent data. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CIVIL AVIATION, WEATHER FORECASTING), (*WEATHER FORECASTING, CEILING), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, VISIBILITY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, WEATHER STATIONS, NETWORKS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, TABLES(DATA)

Subject Categories : Commercial and General Aviation
      Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE