Accession Number : AD0709127

Title :   THE DYNAMIC STATISTICAL METHOD OF FORECASTING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PROCESSES AND ITS PRACTICAL APPLICATION (Dinamiko-Statisticheskii Metod Prognozirovaniya Gidrometeorologicheskikh Protsessov i Ego Prakticheskoe Primenenie),

Corporate Author : NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC OFFICE WASHINGTON D C

Personal Author(s) : Alyokhin,Yu. M. ; Kondratovich,R. V. ; Gvozdeva,V. G.

Report Date : 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 26

Abstract : The forecasting of Series Q(T) is based on the Alyekhin method. Its essentials are as follows. The method is designed for forecasts with earliness varying from one to more years of the mean annual or seasonal phenomena averaged for areas not smaller than 50,000 square km. It consists of multiple linear extrapolation of multiannual series of macrophonomenon by using equation (1) defined in the text. The recommended source material for forecasting must be based on systematic observations for at least 50 years. The method can be used in forecasting phenomena whose correlated functions have a period not shorter than 8 years. The processing of forecasts requires the calculation of deviations from the mean value, of correlation function with the use of diagrams in the form of mean curves. To make the method more effective, additional research with regard to thermal and basic variables in various areas is necessary.

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, DETERMINANTS(MATHEMATICS), CURVE FITTING, TABLES(DATA), USSR

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE