Accession Number : AD0709190

Title :   A MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE UTILITY OF FORECASTING NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENA.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : OFFICE OF RESEARCH ANALYSES HOLLOMAN AFB N MEX

Personal Author(s) : Anderson,Richard H. ; Richter,Hans J.

Report Date : APR 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 27

Abstract : A probabilistic model is developed which quantitatively allows one to assess the potential utility of procedures for forecasting phenomena which threaten the success of a mission. It is applied to the particular situation where certain physical phenomena associated with solar activity threaten the success of aerospace missions. The influences of basic parameters of the mission, threat, and forecast are demonstrated. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SPACE ENVIRONMENTS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SOLAR FLARES, COSMIC RAYS, PROBABILITY

Subject Categories : Atmospheric Physics
      Operations Research
      Astronautics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE