Accession Number : AD0709382

Title :   ANALYSIS OF A COHORT PREDICTION MODEL WITH APPLICATIONS TO STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTING.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Hager,Raymond David , Jr

Report Date : APR 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 43

Abstract : A model is presented for the prediction of future organization size based on the numbers of recruits entering the organization in the past. This model utilizes the correlation between populations of successive time periods in order to better estimate the future remaining personnel in the system. The number of personnel leaving from each recruit cohort is assumed to follow the same probability distribution, which is a function of the age of the cohort in the organization and the grade in which the cohort 9started. For large cohort sizes the total personnel in the system is approximately normally distributed. The model is applied to predicting university student enrollment. Comparison of predicted and actual student enrollment is included. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*STUDENTS, UNIVERSITIES), (*MANPOWER, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, FACTOR ANALYSIS, RECRUITING, RETENTION(PSYCHOLOGY), STATISTICAL DATA, PERSONNEL, PROBABILITY, ORGANIZATIONS, THESES

Subject Categories : Humanities and History

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE