Accession Number : AD0712119

Title :   COMBINATORIAL PROPERTIES OF PERSONAL PROBABILITIES,

Corporate Author : WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s) : Barclay,Scott ; Beach,Lee Roy

Report Date : 07 SEP 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 17

Abstract : An experiment in decision making examined the degree to which personal probabilities, subjective probabilities which need not have objective counterparts, conform to probability theory. Subjects gave subjective probability estimates for complex and elementary events. The degree of conformity to probability theory was evaluated by the degree to which probabilities for complex events could be predicted from the proper combination of the probabilities for elementary events. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, PROBABILITY), (*PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, THEORY, UNCERTAINTY, STATISTICAL PROCESSES

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE